attack path analysis

Attack path analysis is a risk assessment methodology that identifies and visualizes the sequence of actions an attacker could take to compromise a system. Originating in IT security, it is now critical for complex cyber-physical systems like modern vehicles. As a key component of the Threat Analysis and Risk Assessment (TARA) process mandated by ISO/SAE 21434:2021 (Clause 15), it models how attackers chain together multiple vulnerabilities to reach a critical asset. Unlike traditional vulnerability scanning that lists individual weaknesses, attack path analysis reveals how seemingly low-risk vulnerabilities can be combined to create a high-impact threat, providing a more realistic view of an organization's risk posture.

Practical application involves three main steps. First, **System Modeling and Asset Identification**, where the vehicle's E/E architecture, including ECUs, networks, and external interfaces, is mapped, and critical assets are identified. Second, **Threat Scenario and Vulnerability Analysis**, which uses frameworks like STRIDE and databases like CVE to identify potential threats and weaknesses in the system model. Third, **Path Mapping and Prioritization**, where automated tools create an attack graph to visualize potential paths. Each path is scored based on exploitability and impact (e.g., using CVSS), allowing teams to prioritize the highest-risk paths for mitigation. This systematic approach helps achieve ISO/SAE 21434 compliance and can demonstrably reduce penetration testing findings by over 40%.

Taiwanese enterprises often face three key challenges. First, **Supply Chain Complexity**: gathering consistent and detailed security information from numerous suppliers to build an accurate system model is difficult. Second, **Talent and Tool Scarcity**: there is a shortage of professionals with dual expertise in automotive engineering and cybersecurity, and integrated analysis tools can be costly. Third, **Lack of Dynamic Threat Integration**: analysis is often a one-time event during design, failing to adapt to new vulnerabilities discovered throughout the vehicle's lifecycle. To overcome these, enterprises should standardize data exchange using Cybersecurity Interface Agreements (CIADs), partner with expert consultants for initial implementation and training, and establish a PSIRT to ensure continuous monitoring and analysis.

Winners Consulting specializes in attack path analysis for Taiwan enterprises, delivering compliant management systems within 90 days. Free consultation: https://winners.com.tw/contact